COMMENTARY: Is America’s Ethnic Vote a Blue Wave Rising or Falling?

By Emil Guillermo

A week ago, there was no Red Wave. Was there a Blue one?

If you look at other exit polls, there weren’t as many as there could have been.

BIPOC voters were seen and heard on election night. And their unity was the key.

But from the numbers, it seems that the coalition is starting a bit.

Overall, 72% of voters on Nov. 8 were white, according to the Associated Press Vote Cast exit poll. And they voted Red (Republican) 59% to Blue (Democrat) 39%.

Those in that 39% are allies of traditional BIPOC voters. And we’d better expect that number to increase.

Comprising less than 25% of voters on November 8, BIPOC voters could still use all the help they can get. While they delivered surprisingly good midterm election results for Democrats, it should have been even better.

Was not.

The reason? Blues becoming less blue than ever.

Sure enough, on election night BIPOC voters were mostly Democratic, and thanks to that, we saw an unexpected “mini Blue Wave”.

Blacks up 11% of the voters and 83% went Blue, with only 14% Red.

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That’s high, but it was still down by up to seven percentage points compared to the 2018 midterms, according to a network exit poll and an AP VoteCast poll, as reported by the Washington Post.

11% of the electorate on November 8th was Hispanic/Latino voters and was 56% Blue to 40% Red.

Again, that’s down about 9 to 10 percentage points from the 2018 midterms.

Asian Americans made up only 2% of voters on November 8 and were 64% Blue to 34% Red.

That’s consistent with the AALDEF poll’s findings in its 15-state multilingual exit poll that focused on Asian/Pacific Islander Americans.

But in the 2018 midterms, Asian American Blue support was around 71%.

Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders made up less than .5% of voters and were 58% Blue to 38% Red. That’s lower than the AA portion of the Asian Ameican Native Hawaiian Pacific Island.

I was also surprised that American Indian voters, only 1% of the voters on November 8, 37% Blue to 57% Red.

So, are American Indian voters already where the rest of the BIPOC voters are going? The ethnic vote slippage may add to the potential turnout. But considering motivating factors such as the economy, abortion, or even the fate of democracy, I think that despite the good turnout, some may be tired of divided government and willing to test new ideas that might working for them.

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Could Donald Trump be that new idea?


Trump, who was due to announce his candidacy for a third run for president this week, is doing so in the blink of an eye. His election deniers have lost. For governor, for Congress, for state election leaders. He is no longer seen as a winner. He’s a bona fide loser among throwers. Even the exit poll on favorability for Trump is disastrous.

How can he possibly win? By acknowledging the changing demographics of America and starting to vote ethnically.

I don’t mean the Herschel Walkers, which Dave Chappelle on SNL called “positively stupid.”

I mean regular people who see themselves as independent swing voters.

I don’t say this to be surprised, although I wish I were.

Courting the ethnic vote was one of the things the GOP seemed committed to in 2016, but then Trump came along and the GOP took on the Trump base.

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​​​​​​That would be the irony if outreach to ethnic voters could be the one thing that could help the future of the GOP and Trump – by taking advantage of what appears to be a declining blue-green voter turnout. ethnic.

Of course, he could lose them as well as Trump’s rabid and racist base, the mostly white people on January 6, who saw in Trump the only person who would represent their xenophobic tendencies in a white world going at least.

Maybe that’s a good thing to see them back under a rock.

It remains to be seen which group could make the GOP and Trump winners again.

If you don’t want to see that, work to keep the BIPOC coalition stronger than ever in the fight for civil rights, voting rights, immigration rights, LGBTQ rights, abortion rights.

The ethnic vote may not be blue or blue, but it is still majority blue.

And that’s all you need in a democracy.

Emil Guillermo is a journalist and commentator. He does a show on


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